Most threatened and endangered species face an uphill battle to recovery, and managers must contend with multiple limiting factors. Adding to this is the looming threat posed by climate change. The federally-listed Pacific coast population of the western plover is on the front lines of climate change, with respect to rising sea levels, which are expected to dramatically reduce available sandy beach habitat over the next several decades. In order to improve our understanding of climate threats, we developed a conceptual framework of predicted climate impacts, secondary effects, and species and habitat vulnerabilities. To test the predictions in the framework, we analyzed long-term spatially-explicit data from Monterey Bay and Point Reyes National Seashore to determine the relationship between plover productivity and multiple climate and habitat variables, and then projected future productivity across the landscape. The original conceptual framework is effective at predicting threats, which is corroborated by the analysis. Moreover, we identified probable causal mechanisms underlying climate-productivity relationships, which provide a strong foundation for future management to improve the resilience of the species and the beach ecosystem.
VIDEO(opens in new tab)