California is a global biodiversity hotspot with more than 2,000 endemic plant species and more than 1,600 rare plant species. Rare and endemic plants are of special conservation concern because of their risk of extinction, and they may be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of traits such as limited geographic range, small population size, high habitat specificity, and low dispersal ability. Understanding where these species occur in the landscape is the first step in determining necessary conservation and management measures. Species distribution modeling is a rapidly developing field which uses complex statistical and geospatial analysis to identify potentially suitable habitat in the landscape based on habitat values present at known occurrence locations. This information can also be used to extrapolate potential future habitat suitability under projected climate change scenarios. The rapidly changing nature of modeling methods presents challenges for applying models to policy and management. We will present several case studies of species distribution modeling for rare plants, highlighting conservation implications, caveats, and lessons learned for conservation practitioners.
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