Conservation efforts and other land management decisions are often intended to result in multiple benefits, but real or perceived trade-offs between goals, such as ecological and economic benefits, can contribute to conflict. To support knowledge-sharing across sectors and more informed decision-making, and with funding from the Proposition 1 Delta Water Quality and Ecosystem Restoration Program administered by the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (Grant Agreement Number–Q1996022), we developed a flexible framework for evaluating multidimensional impacts of future landscape change in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. With input from local agencies and conservation organizations, we identified two major drivers of landscape change to evaluate: meeting habitat restoration objectives and continued expansion of perennial crops. We developed three scenarios representing the forecasted change resulting by 2050 from each driver independently, as well as a combination of the two, and we integrated multiple data sources and models to forecast the net impact of each scenario on metrics representing multiple categories of benefits: agricultural livelihoods, water quality, climate change resilience, and biodiversity support. We found that each scenario produced a mix of benefits and trade-offs, and the direction and magnitude of the projected impacts on each metric varied across scenarios. Our results provide a multidimensional understanding of the potential impacts of these scenarios to support more informed conservation and policy decision-making, while our framework is designed to be flexibly updated to incorporate additional metrics, data, and models, and to evaluate new scenarios.
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